Research

For decades, population research has been interested in the complex relationship between child mortality and fertility, with a key focus on identifying hoarding behavior (i.e., fertility response to expected aggregate child mortality). Using unique data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health, we investigate the impact of individual-specific subjective expectations about infant mortality on fertility behavior. We instrument the potentially endogenous infant mortality expectations with the average of parents' ratings of children's health to address the potential for omitted variable bias, such as parental preference for health. Consistent with the hoarding mechanism, we find that a 10-percentage-point increase in community-level child mortality expectations leads to a 14-percentage-point increase in the propensity to have a child in the next two years from a baseline propensity of 39%.

Theoretical analyses have demonstrated that in sequential auctions, prices follow a martingale. Yet, empirical observations often indicate varied price points for comparable products. We examine sales of fresh seafood through sequential Dutch auctions at the Sydney Fish Market (SFM), presenting evidence of non-monotonic price trends and investigating the causes of price variations among homogeneous products. With the extensive data set covering over 27 years of transactions at SFM, we address potential endogeneity concerns arising from seafood diversity. Employing the lot fixed-effects approach to standardize transactions, we discern bidding patterns that differ according to bidders' experience levels. Additionally, our findings highlight evidence of signaling and learning. We infer that the agents' heterogeneity in the market creates an interactive environment: bidders tend to bid higher when following an experienced leader, but this trend reverses when the initial bid comes from someone not experienced, highlighting how bidders adjust based on signals from others.

We provide the first comprehensive analysis of Australia's Baby Bonus, a large universal cash transfer introduced in 2004, using linked administrative data that follow mothers' fertility through 2022. The 17-year horizon allows us to distinguish between timing shifts (tempo effects) and genuine increases in completed fertility (quantum effects), overcoming a key limitation in the literature. Using interrupted time series analysis, we find that the Baby Bonus increased monthly births by approximately 7 percent. Birth responses were concentrated among lower-income mothers and women aged 35–39, with minimal effects among high-income or university-educated mothers. Importantly, we find no evidence of birth spacing adjustments; instead, mothers exposed to the policy had 7 percent more children in total by 2022, indicating permanent increases in completed fertility. A parity-transition framework confirms this directly: the policy's effect on family size grows rather than fades as the observation horizon extends to 20 years. These results show that direct cash transfers can raise completed fertility, with implications for policy responses to declining birth rates and ageing populations.

This study examines the impact of the 2003 Child Rights Act (CRA) in Nigeria, aimed at prohibiting marriages below 18 at the federal level. However, conflicting provisions in the Nigerian constitution and the partial adoption of the federal law by states with Islamic legal systems have hindered its full implementation. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), this research utilizes the staggered implementation of the reform across states while accounting for dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects. Contrary to expectations, the findings using the Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021) method reveal a negative impact of the CRA on marriage age outcomes for girls, indicating marriage at an earlier age and higher prevalence of marriage before 18. This effect is driven by treated respondents residing in clusters where Muslims form the majority. These findings highlight the importance of considering local cultural and religious norms, as overlooking them can lead to unintended consequences. Additionally, this study emphasizes the significance of treatment heterogeneity and demonstrates the bias that can arise when using standard methods that overlook it. By shedding light on the impact of specific contextual factors, this research contributes to a better understanding of how legal reforms can effectively address the issue of child marriage.

This study investigates the spillover effects of unexpected severe health shocks within households, focusing on the impacts on labour market outcomes, physical and mental health, and overall quality of life both the affected individual and other household members. Using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and employing an event study approach with a staggered difference-in-differences model and individual fixed effects, we find that severe health shocks lead to persistent labour market consequences for the affected individuals. For other household members, these shocks significantly increase the likelihood of taking on caregiving roles, lead to an initial increase in working hours, increase financial stress and negatively affect life satisfaction, as well as physical and mental health.

The Coronavirus Supplement, introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, was a temporary policy aimed at mitigating financial hardship for Australian households. However, its effect on employment behaviour has been the subject of debate. This research examines whether the Supplement reduced incentives to work by comparing labour market responses of Australians to New Zealanders residing in Australia, who were excluded from the policy. Using propensity score matching and a difference-in-differences framework, we identify a 19% decline in job-finding rates and a 64% increase in job separations attributable to the Supplement. These findings underscore the balance policymakers must strike between financial support and labour market incentives, particularly during crises. We also explore implications for optimal unemployment benefits, highlighting the need for careful calibration to address both social insurance and incentive effects.

This paper studies how minority women's labor-market expectations are shaped by two belief environments: norms inside the community and stereotypes outside it. We use a relational belief-elicitation design that holds fixed the attitude being guessed and varies the respondent's relation to the target group. Beliefs about a reference group measure perceived norms; beliefs about a group outside the respondent's reference network measure stereotypes; beliefs about what an external audience believes about one's own group measure anticipated stereotypes. We implement the design in original surveys of Muslim students, working professionals, and general students in Australia, eliciting own attitudes and higher-order beliefs about women's freedom to work and maternal employment. Among Muslim women, expected labor supply with a preschool-aged child is strongly associated with own views and perceived in-group norms about maternal employment. External stereotypes concentrate instead on women's freedom to work: Muslim men's actual support is high, yet professionals and general students substantially underestimate it, and Muslim women anticipate this underestimation. These anticipated stereotypes are associated with Muslim women's expected labor supply even after conditioning on the corresponding in-group norm. The paper contributes a framework for measuring norms, stereotypes, and anticipated stereotypes jointly, and suggests that community norms and external stereotypes are distinct but potentially reinforcing belief layers.

Australia's 2004 Baby Bonus disproportionately raised fertility among lower-income, lower-education mothers. This raises the question of whether the additional children induced by the policy go on to have worse outcomes in early adulthood. Using a date-of-birth regression discontinuity design around the February 2005 conception-response cutoff in linked administrative data, we compare children whose births were induced by the policy with those who would have been born regardless. We find no evidence that these marginal children experienced worse early-adult trajectories across high-school completion, education and employment engagement, income-support receipt, and disability-support participation. The results suggest that a universal cash transfer at birth can shift the composition of births toward more disadvantaged families without generating worse early-adult outcomes for the induced cohort.